Buy, Sell, Stash: 2026 Fantasy Football Week 3
Two weeks of NFL football doesn’t tell us much, but it provides some preliminary signals for how coaching staffs plan to deploy their players. Snap shares, route participation, target shares, and alignment are all useful cues, and are typically more predictive than raw counting stats over small sample sizes.
What we're trying to do here is find opportunities between how a player is being used and how the market values him, while most fantasy gamers are still working off draft-day assumptions.
All advanced metrics courtesy of the Fantasy Points Data Suite unless otherwise linked.
Buy: Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We were worried about a potential three-way committee coming into 2026. Irving was coming off a down 2025 where he was limited to just 10 games by a shoulder dislocation and foot sprain.
Gamers were understandably skeptical about whether his hyper-efficient rookie year was legit, or if the 195 lbs 4th round running back was just another in a long line of day three RBs to flash early before flaming out.
But Tampa Bay is using Irving as a bellcow through two weeks, to the tune of a 71.1% snap share (9th amongst RBs) and 17.7% target share (6th).
Last week against Cleveland, he ripped off a 38-yard run, his longest since 2024, playing 51 snaps to Kenneth Gainwell's 23, out-carrying him 17 to 2, and running 24 routes to Gainwell's 13. In Week 1, he garnered 15 touches (seven receptions) on a 58.3% route share and a 25% target share.
And he’s been efficient on his touches:
7th in EPA per attempt (0.137)
7th in rushing yards over expected (28.7)
9th in yards before contact per attempt, 14th in yards after contact
We're buying Irving as a low-end RB1 rest-of-season.
Sell: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Rice’s production has always depended on schemed volume. His 4.90-yard average depth of target ranks 121st out of 121 qualifying receivers since 2023. Dead last. He needs a play-caller who role caters for him, and Kansas City doesn’t seem to be prioritizing that so far in 2026.
Pass rate over expected:
2023-2025: 2nd (+7.8%)
Kenneth Walker is the main reason for the philosophical change. He leads the NFL in rushing (290) and scrimmage yards (365), the Chiefs are at 0.153 EPA per rush against a -0.116 league average, and they're in 12 personnel 26.9% of the time versus 21.1% league-wide. This is a run-first team, and a very successful one.
Rice's usage already reflects it:
Week 1: 17 routes before his first target. A 7.4% target share and 10% first-read rate, third behind Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce.
Two-week marks: 1.62 yards per route run, 0.11 targets per route run, 8.02 expected fantasy points per game.
Rice wins on design, managing just 1.20 yards per route run against man coverage since 2024. Elite wideouts like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, and Zay Flowers deliver WR1 production in run-first offenses because they’re elite technicians and separators. Rice doesn’t really win as an individual player.
We're selling Rice if someone in your league is still willing to pay the low-end WR1 price.
Stash: Antonio Williams, WR, Washington Commanders
Antonio Williams is good at the game, and somebody has to catch passes in the short and intermediate areas for this team. We think he’s the best candidate to earn that role as the season progresses.
Terry McLaurin is stuck in a field-stretching, partially sacrificial vertical role. Chig Okonkwo is out with a hamstring. Stefon Diggs is 32 and feels like a no-brainer trade piece if Washington keeps sliding from 0-2 (which feels inevitable with Jayden Daniels now out indefinitely). The room is aging, and the third-round rookie out of Clemson is the only young piece with a claim on that territory.
He caught four catches, 64 yards, and a touchdown in his NFL debut, earning a 91.2 PFF grade. Week two was less encouraging, and the sample size is small - but his per-target and per-route efficiency on a 42.5% snap rate (which we think is likely to increase significantly as the season progresses) is, at the very least, compelling:
4th in EPA per target (1.495)
9th in XFP/RR
11th in FD/RR (0.147)
12th in YPTOE (4.97)
19th in YPRR (2.59)
We're stashing Williams as a potential WR4/flex play for the back half of the season.
Bonus Buy: Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears
Monangai has handled 24 touches working alongside D'Andre Swift through two games, totalling 182 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown. He’s also quietly been one of the most efficient backs in the league:
1st in yards after contact per attempt (4.65)
3rd in EPA per attempt (0.171)
4th in explosive run rate (22.2%)
His 61-yard touchdown scamper in week 1 is inflating those numbers, but he’s a good player and we like Chicago’s offense despite the Jekyll & Hyde act through two weeks.
With Caleb Williams out indefinitely, Chicago is likely to lean on the ground game in the short term. Swift lost a fumble at the goal line in Week 2. Short-yardage/goal line work could be in play, and so is the lead role if Swift misses time.